NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:If Ted Leonsis wants new arena for Wizards, Capitals, he and Va. governor need to study up

The NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank CenterVirginia state legislature’s decision not to include funding for a new arena for Monumental Sports and Entertainment – owner of the Washington Wizards and Washington Capitals – in Alexandria, Va., reminded me of two political truisms that Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Monumental Sports majority owner Ted Leonsis needed to heed.

All politics are local, and it’s a good idea to know if you have the votes before the celebration.

A new arena deal may end up getting done, but in the here and now, the failure is a setback for Youngkin and Leonsis, and an 80-year-old Virginia politician and fireball, state senator L. Louise Lucas, is largely responsible for making sure the arena and entertainment project is not on the state’s two-year budget which passed Saturday.

The arena project never had Lucas’ support, a necessity. Had Youngkin been more savvy, he would have known that and made sure he did all he could to get her support.

Lucas, who has been a state senator since 1992, is senate’s president pro tempore and chair of the state’s committee on finance and appropriations. She is a force.

Six days after Youngkin and Leonsis unveiled plans in December for a new sports and entertainment complex near Reagan National Airport, Lucas posted on social media, “Anyone who thinks I’m going to approve an arena in Northern Virginia using state tax dollars before we deliver on toll relief and for public schools in Hampton Roads must think I have dumbass written on my forehead.”

Fact check: She does not.

Political leanings aside, she is a treat on social media and plays the game much better than those half her age. Last week, amid a 16-game Wizards losing streak, she posted, “What’s the date for the NBA draft lottery this year? My Wizards have not won a game since January and I want to make sure I am tuned in to share the most exciting moment of the season with them.”

Savage. And done with a wink.

But there is substance, too. From the start of budget talks, she said the Democrat-controlled legislature would deliver what voters wanted. She said that did not include a new arena for pro sports teams. She is fond of saying Virginia is “not a piggybank for billionaires.” Arena deals aren’t easy (Monumental Sports understood that) and definitely not a slam dunk especially when some form of taxpayer dollars are involved.

Virginia political insiders who watched the arena plan unfold suspected problems from the start. Knowing what the most powerful state senator wanted – toll relief for household incomes making less than a specified amount and money for public education, among other line items – Youngkin could have delivered instead of waiting until late in the process.

A snazzy PR campaign doesn’t always equal a done deal. Over the weekend, Monumental Sports and Entertainment posted one more video plea for an arena deal and a D.C. political operative posted, “Did they spend more time planning, scripting, and shooting this latest video, than they ever did reaching out to @SenLouiseLucas early?”

Lucas reposted the message but to be fair there were overtures from Monumental Sports to have early discussions with Lucas. It's clear a new arena was not part of her agenda at this time.

The arena deal fizzled with Leonsis meeting with Lucas and calling her a badass (according to Lucas) and Youngkin whining. Monumental Sports still has a $500 million commitment from the District of Columbia, where the Wizards and Capitals play, to renovate the downtown arena and surrounding area.

And perhaps Youngkin reintroduces a plan to build the sports arena and entertainment district in Alexandria, and in five years, maybe that’s where the Wizards and Capitals will eventually play though other hurdles remain.

But in the moment, Youngkin and Leonsis received a lesson in Politics 101.

Follow NBA reporter Jeff Zillgitt on social media @JeffZillgitt