NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:If Josh Allen doesn't play 'smarter football,' Bills are destined to underachieve

Eighty-four.

That’s the number attached to Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen that resonates.

No,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center that’s not the total of TV commercials the much-hyped Allen is appearing in these days. It’s the 84 turnovers Allen has committed since entering the NFL in 2018 – and it’s the highest figure of any player during that span.

Allen reminded the NFL universe of his propensity to cough up the football on Monday night when he committed four turnovers in the overtime loss at the New York Jets.

Remember, the Jets were forced to try to stay airborne after losing Rodgers to a ruptured Achilles tendon on their opening series. And Allen helped them in a big way with his three interceptions and lost fumble.

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“I let it get away from me this last game,” Allen said during a news conference leading up to the home opener against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. “I’m not going to let it affect me going forward.”

Maybe not. Allen seemed so dejected when he met the media after the game at MetLife Stadium – the opposite of the cheerful pitchman who has become a darling endorser in recent months.

Yet even if his psyche is intact, it doesn’t guarantee that the results are going to instantly flip.

What happened on Monday night – with all three picks going to safety Jordan Whitehead – added to the pattern that says a lot about why the Bills have yet to push through to the Super Bowl stage despite being a sexy championship pick in recent years.

Allen maintained, “I was trying to do too much,” in the opener. He promised to learn from the experience and said that he will emphasize understanding situations.

In his sixth season since Buffalo drafted him seventh overall out of Wyoming, shouldn’t he know better by now?

In any event, he maintained that part of his issue will be to learn to give up on certain plays rather than forcing throws. Last year, the situations that dogged him involved being careless in the red zone.

And now this season begins with Allen not sensing that, with Rodgers down, he didn’t need to win a shootout against the Jets. Sometimes, it’s a matter of not making the plays to lose the game.

Sure, the Bills need to support Allen with a more consistent rushing attack. But he has plenty of weapons, including Stefon Diggs. And the defense is among the best in the league.

Allen needs to become a smarter football player, which would include sensing situations in the moment such as what to do when running in the open field in addition to the game-management situations.

If the Bills are going live up their promise as a legit contender, they need their best player to…

“Obviously,” he said, “gotta play smarter football.”

It would be quite the leadership by example for a player, like his team, that has glaringly underachieved.

“Trying to learn from it,” Allen added of his Week 1 setback. “It’s not the first time I’ve thrown three (interceptions)…might not be the last.”

NFL Week 1: Reality or mirage?

After an offseason of hype and anticipation, there’s nothing quite like the NFL’s Kickoff Weekend to fuel the overreactions.

Look at the standings now and the Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals – serious Super Bowl contenders in the AFC – are all sitting at 0-1.

But c’mon. It was just one game (even for the New York Giants, blown out by the Dallas Cowboys).

The Bengals, hosting their AFC North rival Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, surely know better than to overreact. They started 0-2 last season, then wound up in the AFC title game.

Early momentum or now, it is a long season. Which reminds us of some classic cases.

In 1993, the Dallas Cowboys started 0-2 in the quest to repeat as Super Bowl champs. Dallas had its reason for the sluggish start: MVP running back Emmitt Smith was a holdout. The 0-2 start turned out to be just the switch to ignite the contract negotiations – especially after high-strung defensive end Charles Haley used his helmet to smash a hole in the locker room wall right next to where team owner Jerry Jones was standing. Smith signed the next week, the team’s morale rebounded and, months later, the Cowboys repeated as Super Bowl champs (to set up the next drama with the split between Jones and Jimmy Johnson).

Then there was the start to the New England Patriots' season in 2003. Five days after Bill Belichick released popular safety and team leader Lawyer Milloy in another example of cold, salary cap-influenced NFL business, the Patriots opened the season at the Bills. They were clobbered, 31-0 – with Milloy playing against his former teammates after signing with Buffalo. The flat performance by the Patriots was interpreted by some as payback for the players’ disgust with Belichick. No matter. They shook it off and commenced to win 14 of their next 15 games, claiming the AFC East crown with a 14-2 record. And how’s this for symmetry: New England closed the regular season at Foxborough by drilling the Bills, 31-0. They went on to win the first of back-to-back Super Bowl titles.

The moral: Starting 0-1 is not a death sentence.

Instead, it’s an opportunity for (some) teams to demonstrate that they were just warming up.

Quick slants

Tyreek Hill pledged to put up a 2,000-yard receiving season, which would break the NFL record established by Megatron (Calvin Johnson) with 1,964 yards in 2012, and he got off to a terrific start with 215 yards and two touchdowns on 11 receptions in the Miami Dolphins' Week 1 victory at the LA Chargers. It marked the third-most receiving yards in a season opener in NFL history and was the most in Week 1 since Anquan Boldin posted a 217-yard opener for the Arizona Cardinals in a 2003 contest against the Detroit Lions…DeAndre Hopkins had a rather quiet debut for the Tennessee Titans (seven catches, 65 yards) in a loss at the New Orleans Saints. Another Titan making his debut, edge rusher Arden Key, made plenty of noise. Key had 1 ½ sacks and according to NextGen Stats, had 11 quarterback pressures – the most of any defender in the league in Week 1…The Giants are on upset alert at Arizona as they try to rebound from the dismal Sunday night opener against Dallas. The Cardinals lost in Week 1, too, but the revamped defense under new coach Jonathan Gannon tallied a 51.3% pressure rate against the Washington Commanders, according to Next Gen Stats. It was the second-best rate in the NFL last weekend, and it came with the Cardinals blitzing on just 7.7% of the snaps.